Climate Change

Drivers of Ecological Change

Compared to habitat loss and exploitation, climate change is a less significant direct driver of biodiversity loss

Already w have 1.1 C increase from 1850-1900 avg to 2011 - 2020
- GHG contributed to 1-2 deg warming and aerosols cooled 0-0.8 , natural drivers changed surgace temp -0.1 to 0.1.
- Interestingly they predict an increase in soil moisture in central africa (sahara and savannah), but decrease in the Amazon and southern africa

When combined with land use it has a large effect on species richness
Climate change doesn't affect each region equally - the risk of ecosystem disruption is highest in some regions (SE Asia, Oceania, Amazon)
Risk of extinction related to climate change is highest in certain regions (S America, Oceania)
And range loss is higher in certain taxa, especially ones with limited dispersal like amphibians and plants
Some species will be able to adapt to a changing environment/niche or disperse to a new location with projected similar climate

Species changing Phenology and moving northwards have a positive population trend, but ones that aren't adapting are declining

Species loss, range loss, local adaptation, range and phenology shifts all result in novel ecosystem and communities because of climate change.

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